CPI inflation was expected to be 2.5% in 2026 Q1, below the MPC’s projection of 2.9% (right panel of Chart A). On average, external forecasters expected GDP to rise by 1.5% over the four quarters to 2026 Q1, with four-quarter growth then of 1.3% in 2027 Q1 and 1.4% in 2028 Q1 (left panel of Chart A). Activity is expected to pick up in Q1 ahead of stamp duty increases in April, but few expect a buoyant market throughout 2025. Positive output growth is now expected to return during 2025 H2; but weaker confidence following the Budget and supply constraints suggest it will be modest.
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RPI-reform adjusted measure of five-year, five-year forward inflation compensation (a) This expectation is similar to firms’ reported own price inflation for the past year, suggesting that respondents do not expect much moderation in their rate of price inflation in the coming year. Medium-term CPI inflation expectations have been little changed over 2024 (Chart 2.27). Firms’ one year and three year ahead expectations for CPI inflation, as measured by the January DMP Survey, have fallen back from their peaks in 2022.
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Since the MPC’s November 2024 meeting, 12-month CPI inflation had increased to 2.6% in November from 1.7% in September. As a result, different models tend to vary in how the data are decomposed into cyclical and structural changes, especially towards the endpoint of the sample and given the volatility in inflation and interest rates in recent years. While some estimates suggest that global trend growth could be around 1½ percentage points higher due to AI over the coming decade (Goldman Sachs (2023)), others point to much smaller effects (Acemoğlu and Johnson (2023)). In recent decades, global capital market integration has allowed advanced economies to benefit from low borrowing costs, as savings from emerging markets have increasingly flowed to advanced economies. Trade openness fosters knowledge spillovers and increases competition, both of which tend to raise productivity growth (April 2018 World Economic Outlook). According to the 2024 UN population projections, global population ageing is expected to continue over the coming decades.
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